Here’s a bold prediction: one AI-related stock could outshine even the mighty Nvidia in 2026, soaring by a staggering 47%. But here’s where it gets controversial—it’s not the household name you’d expect. While Nvidia has been the darling of Wall Street, with 60 out of 64 analysts surveyed by S&P Global giving it a 'buy' or 'strong buy' rating, another player is quietly positioning itself for a potential breakout. And this is the part most people miss: ON Semiconductor (Onsemi) might just be the underdog worth watching.
Nvidia’s dominance in AI-powered GPUs has driven its stock up by 30% this year, with analysts predicting a 44% upside in the next 12 months. Impressive, right? But Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis believes Onsemi could eclipse that, raising his price target from $68 to $80—a 47% jump from its December 2025 closing price. The catch? Onsemi’s stock has been struggling, down by double digits year-to-date. So, what’s the story here?
Onsemi isn’t in the GPU game like Nvidia. Instead, it focuses on intelligent power and sensing technology, powering everything from data centers and electric vehicles (EVs) to industrial facilities and energy infrastructure. Its total addressable market is a whopping $44 billion, growing at an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). But here’s the kicker: its new vertical gallium nitride (vGaN) semiconductors could be a game-changer, reducing energy loss by up to 50%—a huge draw for AI data centers. Add to that its recent acquisition of Aura Semiconductor’s Vcore power technologies, and you’ve got a recipe for growth.
However, not everyone is convinced. Only 15 out of 34 analysts surveyed by S&P Global rate Onsemi as a 'buy,' and its average price target suggests just a 9% upside. Plus, its Q3 revenue dropped 12% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share plunged 32%. Management aims for a 10-12% CAGR by 2027, but that pales in comparison to Nvidia’s projected 48% revenue growth next year. And this is where it gets even more contentious: Onsemi’s fastest-growing market—EVs and charging stations—faces headwinds as U.S. EV adoption slows due to policy changes and economic factors.
So, is Onsemi’s 47% surge in 2026 a pipe dream? Its valuation is reasonable, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5, but it might not be enough to lure investors en masse. The consensus view of a modest gain seems more grounded than Evercore ISI’s bold projection. Yet, it’s worth asking: Are analysts’ rosy predictions for Nvidia equally overblown?
What do you think? Is Onsemi the next big thing in AI, or is Nvidia still the safer bet? Let’s spark a debate—share your thoughts in the comments!
